“Who needs theory when you have so much information? But this is categorically the wrong attitude to take toward forecasting, especially in a field like economics where the data is so noisy.”

“In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined.”

“Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.”

“...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.”

“By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes.”

“We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.”