“Who needs theory when you have so much information? But this is categorically the wrong attitude to take toward forecasting, especially in a field like economics where the data is so noisy.”

“In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined.”

“Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.”

“By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes.”

“We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.”

“Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.”

“Our reasons are not prophets When oft our fancies are.”

“Fortune sides with him who dares.”

“We only have one life (unless youre a cat or a Buddhist) and its often dictated to us by what society tells us we should do. So we normalize and accept the paradox. We glamorize busy, but long to t...”

“The price of success is the risk of self-esteem.”