It is indeed true that the stock market can forecast the business cycle.
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About Paul Samuelson
Paul Samuelson was a 20th-century American economist and nobel laureate. Paul Anthony Samuelson was an American economist who was the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. When awarding the prize in 1970, the Swedish Royal Academies stated that he "has done more than any other contemporary economist to raise the level of scientific analysis in economic theory". Read more on Wikipedia →